Hot Pockets, Hallmark, and Housewives (Desperate). What do these all have in common? They have all employed individuals who pleaded guilty for committing fraud to get their children into prestigious universities. Year after year, elite colleges make headlines for massive admissions scandals: The Varsity Blues Case and SFFA v Harvard Case pulled back the curtain to worlds of bribery, corruption, and discrimination taking place in the highest regarded institutions in America. This is clearly a deep-rooted systemic problem, but what is the solution? Many argue it’s simple: start from a clean slate and establish a lottery system for college admissions. The most widespread format of the lottery system includes a GPA and standardized test score threshold that students must achieve before they can apply. Other than this one condition, the rest of the admissions process is simply drawing names out of a hat. This idea has captured the support of many in the education community, and to its advocates’ credit, lottery systems do already exist in New York High Schools as well as other countries such as Sweden. However, by only focusing on the issues that it solves, proponents of this system overlook the countless other dominoes knocked down along the way. A lottery system is inconsiderate of the negative consequences it poses to students, especially those who are economically disadvantaged, and thus shouldn't be implemented. 

In this proposed system, students are boiled down to numbers on a screen, but how can a school determine the quality of a student from just a number? The short answer—you can’t. GPAs are unreliable determinants since grade inflation does not align student’s grades with their content mastery. In a study that compared the ACT scores and GPAs of 4,393,119 students from 2010 to 2021, it was discovered that the average GPA has risen by 0.17, from 3.22 to 3.39 while ACT scores remained relatively the same (Sanchez & Moore, 2022). When only considering scores, a student who has had the luck of grade inflation may be chosen over another student who works equally as hard, but whose institution grades differently. There is no reliability in being a “Straight A-Student” as it no longer differentiates between the academically strong and the academically lucky.

Unlike the national average GPA, the average SAT and ACT scores of graduating seniors have barely changed (National Average SAT Scores - New SAT, 2022). This, however, still doesn’t provide validity to be the sole factor in college admissions. Wealth inequalities give those who can afford tutoring services a leg up while others are left in the dust. Not to mention, for some, even being able to go to school everyday is a privilege. Chronic absenteeism—missing more than 10% of the school year—is 3-4 times more prevalent in areas of high-poverty (Balfanz & Byrnes, 2012). Students living in poverty often have to trade-off school days to meet demands in their personal lives whether it be to work a job or to take care of their younger siblings. When acknowledging these factors, the lottery system is akin to Usain Bolt racing someone who can’t even make it to the track because they’re working to support their family. 

Even if universities are somehow able to account for these variables, schools will still only see the most basic aspects of a student, thus washing the value of each individual’s character down the drain. Despite the tedious nature of writing college essays, each paper has a purpose. As Whitney Soule, the dean of admissions at the University of Pennsylvania, puts it, the job of admission officers is, “designing questions and reading the answers with intention, looking to create the matches that make our communities hum” (Downey, 2023, p. 1). A college’s community and culture is one of the most important factors in their appeal to potential students. The thousands of websites and resources aiming to help students find their best college fit is indicative of the need for different learning environments for different people to best succeed. Beth Onofry, a former Dartmouth admissions officer explained, “‘College is a match to be made, not a prize to be won.’ You’re not looking for the most selective school, but trying to match up an institution’s values with what your student is looking for in a college” (Bacrania, 2017, p. 1). When students are reduced to a numerical value, schools will be unable to assess whether or not a student will promote the culture they want to foster on campus. The loss of specific fostered cultures on campuses will cause applicants to lose variety among higher education institutions. Colleges who receive similar applicant pools will all have relatively similar environments, leaving the students who crave something different to suffer. We can’t expect a fish to thrive on land. Having different choices when picking colleges is necessary in ensuring that students reach their full potential. 

When it comes to a university’s environment, a major factor for students of color is diversity. How can a college claim that these students will succeed if they don’t see people like them succeeding? A lack of diversity is a serious issue that appears not just in higher education but throughout our society. The lottery system is championed as a solution to this as stated by Borrowers of Color (2019), “This would do away with admissions preferences that overwhelmingly favor white and wealthy applicants, including for athletes and legacies” (p. 6). Admittedly, the concept seems to make sense logically—legacy and bribery give an advantage to those who are already in power, so why not do away with it all and only focus on the numbers? When put in action, the results spell out a different story. The New York City High School system uses a choice-ranked matching system similar to the lottery system, with hundreds of different schools to choose from. In order to determine who was actually interested in individual schools, an “open house priority” was created. This was soon scrapped as students with non-native English speaking parents didn’t understand the importance of the open houses and had more trouble navigating to the schools so far in advance of the application deadline (Kamenetz, 2019, p.1). Furthermore, Bernard Grofman and Samuel Merrill (2004), professors at UC Irvine and Wilkes University, respectively, simulated lottery admissions based on GPAs and found that it had very little effect on the overall diversity of the students compared to regular admissions. Another study by Dominique Baker (2022), an assistant professor of education policy at Southern Methodist University, and Michael Bastedo, a professor of education and associate dean at the University of Michigan’s School of Education, found that when, “using minimum thresholds for both GPA and standardized tests, both together and separately, the participation of students of color and low-income students drops precipitously” (p.1). Though the lottery system is meant to increase accessibility for underrepresented groups, simulations have established that it would have the opposite effect, instead solidifying the power of the ruling class. 

When it comes down to it, a lottery admission system only treats the symptoms, not the illness. The chokehold of those in power is reinforced because the proposed system doesn’t consider the racial and wealth achievement gap in high schools around the country. In the paper “Race, Poverty and SAT Scores: Modeling the Influences of Family Income on Black and White High School Students' SAT Performance” (2013), researchers found that SAT scores have a steady positive correlation with family income. Since US public schools are primarily funded by income tax and property tax, this indicates that the family income of students is correlated with the funding that their schools receive. In addition, districts that are predominantly composed of students of color receive, on average, 16% less state and local revenue than those with the fewest students of color. Likewise, high-poverty districts receive 5% less state and local revenue than low-poverty districts (Morgan, 2022). As of 2021, 31% and 23% of Black and Latino children live below the federal income level, respectively (Children in poverty by race and ethnicity, 2021). When compared to the 11% of White and Asian people living in poverty, it is clear that Black and Latino underachievement in schools is significantly impacted by wealth disparities in education. By only focusing on the final step before attending college, the admissions system, the lottery ignores the issues that initially create inequalities. Furthermore, admitting students based on numerical merit creates more obstacles for already disadvantaged students.

If we truly want diversity and fairness in higher education, the lottery system is not the answer. We need to start at the root of the problem, the illness, the very first domino: equal funding in grade school. When students have the resources and support they need from the start, the rest of the puzzle pieces will begin to fall into place on their own. With only a 20% increase in school funding, the amount of below-average students in math, English, social studies, and science decreased by 19.7, 17.0, 16.1, and 18.1 percent, respectively (Sohn et al., 2023). Though there will always be the Lori Loughlins and Michelle Janavs of the world feeding corruption, stricter adherence to rules and regulations by admission officials as well as greater consequences for those who break them will be the best way to deter corruption. 

Until we target the roots of injustice in the American education system, no real progress will be made. We need more than just painkillers; we need the cure.

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